The Census Bureau has released a one-time look at how the use of artificial intelligence by firms is expected to affect employment, with data indicating large shifts in both directions but no significant difference on balance.
The data is based on an artificial intelligence supplement to the department’s regular Business Trends and Outlook survey, which was released March 28 in a research paper analyzing changes and projections over a six-month period.
It comes as policymakers navigate concerns the technology will lead to widespread job displacement.
“While AI can replace some workers’ tasks and types of labor, it can also generate new tasks and jobs,” the paper reads. “The net effect on firm employment depends on the relative strength of these two effects. It also may be that AI is displacing tasks but not workers.”
The survey found “The fraction of firms anticipating an increase in employment due to future AI use is 6.5%, up from 2.8% in the last six months. Similarly, the fraction anticipating a decrease (6.1%) is much higher than the 2.6% reporting a decrease in the last six months. These figures represent more than double the fractions pertaining to the corresponding cases of employment change in the last six months.”
However, “Overall, recent use of AI has not reportedly led to a net change in employment for many firms,” the research notes, adding: “’no change’ in employment was, by far, the most common response. An overwhelming fraction (94.6%) of AI-using businesses reported not having experienced any net change in their employment in the last six months attributable to AI use.”
In summary, “the results do not indicate that a large fraction of firms has reduced, or will reduce, employment due to AI use; though both increases and decreases in employment are expected to be more prevalent in the future.”
The AI supplement, which the Census Bureau noted is “only available in this cycle,” also asked businesses about the “type of AI used and applications to business functions, the impact of AI use on worker tasks and existing equipment, other changes to the production process…[and] impediments to future use of AI.”